“If you get close, wear a mask. ‘Oh, it’s controversial.’ It’s not controversial to me. You get close, you wear a mask. Social distance, social distance,” he told the audience.
Problem: Vazquez notes the audience Trump delivered this message to was largely maskless. They were packed so tightly that several people required medical attention due to the heat and a nearby fire truck had to cool supporters down. Staff was also seen without masks.
How Trump’s favorite doctor helped influence Florida — It’s not news that infectious disease experts have been replaced at Trump’s side by Scott Atlas, the Stanford neurologist (not infectious disease doctor) who the President saw and liked on Fox News.
Unintended consequences — We’re into the portion of this election where local events can influence national elections. Keep an eye on weather, Covid spikes, and racial unrest.
Will unrest in Philadelphia affect the election? It seems right now like the swingiest swing state of 2020. Trump needs at least one Rust Belt state that defected from Democrats in 2016 to stay with him in 2020 and he’s within striking distance in Pennsylvania.
Now, the killing of Walter Wallace, a Black man suffering from mental health issues who was advancing on police with a knife has the state’s largest urban center and Democratic stronghold on edge. Protests have devolved to looting.
Sleeping with the enemy — Red or blue, Trump or Biden and, often, men and women. Trump’s likely to do better with men and Biden’s going to do better with women.
So it’s simple math (and maybe some opposites attract) that households will be split by this election.
Prediction models run possible scenarios. Biden wins in more of them. There are a number of prediction models out thee — from FiveThirtyEight and The Economist, among others — that suggest Biden is much more likely to win than Trump. CNN’s Oliver Darcy talked to the data journalists behind them to ask why they’re any better than they were in 2016, when they also said a Trump loss was more likely (although less likely than now).
Here’s Nate Silver to Darcy on this year’s modeling: “We’re not going out on any sort of limb here. We’re just stating the obvious. Biden’s pretty far ahead in polls and the candidate who’s ahead in polls by a margin like that usually wins.”
House and Senate seats move toward Democrats — It’s not just the presidential map that’s getting more difficult for Republicans.
CNN uses House and Senate ratings from Inside Elections, which is run by CNN contributor Nathan L. Gonzalez.
What’s changed: According to CNN’s report, Democrats are now predicted to pick up a net gain of 14 to 20 seats in the House, and a net gain of four to six seats in the Senate, which would be enough to flip the chamber.
Key details: Two US Senate races in Georgia are becoming more difficult for Republicans, but both could end up in a December runoff.
More suburban House seats are tilting away from Republicans and toward Democrats.
: Things are getting more interesting in battleground states
Key point: Republicans are beginning to narrow the Democratic advantage in pre-Election Day voting in four key battleground states, where more than 12 million votes have already been cast.
Florida — Trump won by 1+ point in 2016
- A week ago Democrats had a 9 percentage point lead in ballots cast. Now it is 4 percentage points.
North Carolina – Trump won by more than 3+ points in ’16
- Democrats had a 12-point advantage over Republican ballots cast last week. Now it’s 8 points.
Iowa – Trump won by 9+ points in ’16
- Democrats have a 17-point lead over Republicans in pre-election vote, but that lead has narrowed by four points this week. Democrats also held a lead in pre-election vote in 2016.
Nevada – Clinton won by 2-points in ’16
- Last week, Democrats led Republicans by 12 points. Now, the 42% of ballots cast by Democrats is now only seven points higher than Republicans’ 35%.
Key thing to remember: Republicans have indicated they are more likely to vote on Election Day, so there’s an asterisk for this data. We don’t know what will happen next week.